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The Future (IF we have one)

What We Might Expect: 2022 & Beyond

Thus far, I have rendered political economy and poetry.

Now, to affect a bit of prophecy*.

Whither is the world headed?

*

IF Covid, Climate Change, and Nuclear Disaster, and Global War let us survive at all: here is the likely scenario, emerging late in 2022.

The English speaking West , i.e. , Anglo-Norman US, Canada, UK and Anglo-Celtic Australia and NZ, will morph, quite easily, into quasi ‘neo-Fascist’ (using the term loosely) , oligarchical, entities, abandoning liberal democracy (in content, if not in form)

Authoritarian, right wing , and finance driven.

The trend is already apparent.

*

The Non-Anglo West (i.e. , the Rest of Europe, eastern and western) , less cohesive owing to its diversity, will be unevenly split: and, ever in flux, between neo-Fascism, social democracy, and its Asian Antipode(the China Model ( outlined below).

A sub-set of the former, the Scandinavian countries, will , in more stable fashion, remain what they are: communitarian republics, based on tribal homogeneity, with a keen sense of collective welfare.

*

In the East (i.e., Asia) it will be some, or other, variant of the now Ascendant China Model.

That is: a strong, Paternalist, Public Welfare State directing a Market Economy.

*

The Rest of the World will have a ‘choice’ of these polar systems, and will find their placement, as they choose, and according to their lights.

Perhaps, new(er) hybrids will emerge?

*

The old binaries of capitalism and socialism will no longer apply, along with the steady obsolescence of the overloaded intellectual baggage that accompanied those variants.

But one shared trait, ‘twixt the Major Realms , of East and West, will be(come) glaringly obvious.

Both of the major orders (Anglo and Asian) will be run in plain, top-down, fashion.

The US -owing to scale and size – will ‘lead’ the Anglo grouping China , for the same reasons, the Asian set.

But it will be strictly nominal ‘leadership’ only.

Neither order will be able – even if willing – to sustain empire, as in the past.

[The Non-Anglo West will take quite a while to find their own feet, but cannot be a unified entity: as such, they are not some Third Force that can challenge the major groupings].

*

I am not including Russia, India, and Brazil, in this accounting, as matters are in flux.

Also, on scale alone, they need to be noted separately.

And , Germany, too.

Each is a giant but it is unclear, now, which model each might , finally, adopt.

Russia has elements of both models, India and Brazil are on the verge of taking on the Anglo mold, and Germany may provide a Bismarckian version of the China Model.

*

Is the world better off, thereby?

The end of colonialism and empire is of course beneficial to All weak and impuissant nations.

The West (as a whole) would have lost its 400 year old hegemony ,and its accompanying advantages; but freed, also, of the many, significant, costs of domination.

Beyond that, one would have to reckon matters , case by case.

*

The new world order will not be a ‘world’ order at all, being highly differentiated.

Multi-polarity will be the norm.

In many ways, its diversity will reflect once again, after a long interval, the diversity of the planet – before the recent Hegemons homogenized the world under their suzerainty.

*

Is there some transhistorical principle at play in all of the above?

Not in any grandiloquent sense, but Yes.

It is an insight that was commonplace before EuroModernism invented a new parlance to explain the world.

That, in the long run, economics and politics, reduce to the primal, anthropic, values of culture and tradition.

*

However, the initial Caveats must be noted.

I said, IF the hazards of Covid , Climate Change, Nuclear disaster, and all-out War , are successfully averted.

That’s a Big IF.

*

So, the forthcoming Year will be the most portentous in the history of the last 500 years.

Of course, being future directed , this is all speculation: but it is informed speculation.

Whether it is right or wrong, time will tell.

Btw , importantly, I hold no brief for either of the major ‘models’ :but only see them as likely successors to the present state of endemic confusion and uncertainty.

Finally, analyses at the level of the nation-state ( another EuroModernist innovation) are not relevant to assess human welfare: but do help clarify the practices of governing elites.

* I use the term for alliteration only: what I offer here, instead, is an extrapolation from current trends.

[© R.Kanth 2021]

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